Disturbance fifty one making a wild dash to the west

General overview Tuesday 13th October 2015

Heavy rain and thunderstorms from the tail of the trough we described yesterday are already beginning to increase over the western Caribbean. This is set to continue to increase through the next few days until it is joined by disturbance fifty one. Fifty one is galloping west having crossed the Windward Islands overnight and is expect to merge with the developing low later in the week. The greatest threat from the combined system will be torrential rain in central America, where flooding and mudslides are likely. There is still some decent upper level shear in this area, which may dampen the passionate union of these two systems, however if tropical development were to occur, it is most likely to occur in the Bay of Campeche in 7 to 9 days time.

Any system that were to develop would be likely to be confined to the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico. There does not appear to be any threat to the northern Gulf. This is traditionally the area for local cyclone development at this end of the season and this system is being watched keenly, with divided views on track. There is a consensus amongst the European modellers that this will jump the fence into the Pacific, where conditions are favourable for a late storm, while the American modellers have this tracking as a weak and useless system across southern Florida and into the western Atlantic, but without development of any significance. Both get my vote.

Disturbance fifty two is now about dead centre of the tropical Atlantic and is moving west at 7 knots. Despite upper level shear taking its foot off the gas, the disturbance shows little interest in developing and this is unlikely to constitute a threat.

Stand easy.