Speculation surrounds a low pressure system jumping the fence from the Pacific

General overview Thursday 15th October 2015

Disturbance fifty three is ashore over northern Honduras moving west at walking pace and is expected to enter the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the eastern Pacific. This is likely to bring significant amounts of rain into central America. Thereafter, the modellers seem to be inventing some fairly wacky predictions. The current favourite is for this forming a tropical storm when it enters the eastern Pacific, then jumping the fence again into the Bay of Campeche, to join the predicted developing low pressure cell towards the end of next week. What is not clear from the models is whether or not the system will be of any significance as the northern Gulf is fairly well protected by the jet stream and frontal activity. This is too speculative for me to hang on to with any confidence, but should not be discounted as this theory would cause increased winds and seas for the Gulf of Mexico next week as well as flooding rainfall for the western portions of central America and southern Mexico.

Disturbance fifty two is centred around 550 miles north-nor'east of the mouth of the Amazon and has started to curve to the north-west at 10 knots. This is still poorly organised, but if it does get any semblance of an act together, is likely to pass north east of the Caribbean.

Stand easy. 

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