Rainmaker across western Gulf

General overview Monday 19th October 2015.

Disturbance fifty three is located near the coast of Mexico in the southern Bay of Campeche. The disturbance is moving very slowly west towards the coast. There is no well -defined centre and all guidance now indicates little chance of any significant development, with a track inland over eastern Mexico as it tracks north towards Texas later this week. Even without developing this disturbance will bring a risk of heavy rainfall to eastern Mexico and southern Texas through next weekend. In addition, strong winds remain likely across much of the western through northern Gulf as the disturbance and a high-pressure area over the southern U.S. results in a strong pressure gradient. No sign anywhere of the tea-leaf readers and assorted bluffers who had this down for a hurricane strike on Florida last week.

Disturbance fifty four is about a day east of the Caribbean and is moving to the west at 15 knots and development is not expected as this is facing a bout of upper level shear.

Disturbance fifty five has formed about a day west of the Cape Verde Island and is moving west at 10 knots. The disturbance is producing a large area of thunderstorms but is poorly organised and frankly, is a little late for the party. Development is not expected.

Umbrellas in Mexico and Texas otherwise stand easy.