No grand finale to the 2015 season?

General overview Tuesday 20th October 2015

Disturbance fifty three has opened up to a broad elongated area of low pressure that extends from the north west Caribbean into southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. A general west-nor'west track is expected over the next few days before dissipating later this week as it moves into eastern Mexico. Some of the associated tropical moisture will move north into northeastern Mexico and Texas, where it will interact with an upper-level trough of low pressure and tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific to bring a widespread heavy rain threat to much of central and eastern Texas. No commentators seem to anticipate any tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance fifty four is centred around 200 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon and is moving to the west at 5 knots. Tropical development is not expected and this disturbance will probably dissipate over the next 2 days.

Disturbance fifty five is at the mid-Atlantic point now and is moving toward the west-nor'west at 7 knots. The disturbance continues to produce a large area of thunderstorms, but remains poorly organised. Development is not expected. It seems increasingly unlikely that there is to be a grand operatic finale to the 2015 season. I would suggest more a village hall affair, where tone-deaf children sing accompanied by the Vicar's wife mercilessly thrashing an untuned piano. Having said that, I have been wrong before, one addressee having cruelly pointed out that the blind sniper wasn't far off with his prediction for JOAQUÍN. I was rather hoping nobody would notice that.

Stand easy. 

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