Disturbance three in south west Caribbean

After announcing the demise of BONNIE yesterday, the system's remnants have rallied a little as it passed the Outer Banks and headed into the Atlantic. This is still causing some heavy rainfall along the coast of the Carolinas but will be clear in the next few hours. There is a slight chance of this developing but it will have no impact on land.

As expected, tropical disturbance three has formed in the south-west Caribbean to the east of Honduras and all indicators would points this forming a circulation centre over the Yucatan channel by Sunday evening. Steering currents across the Gulf are fairly strong at present and should push the system to the north and east towards the central Florida peninsula with landfall expected on Tuesday. Wind shear across the eastern Gulf of Mexico is fairly robust at the moment which should put the brakes on this to an extent, perhaps only a weak storm at best with maximum winds between 35 and 45 knots although one or two commentators are getting excited about this one after it crosses the Florida peninsula.

Pure conjecture. Stand easy.

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