Disturbance three showing weak storm potential
General overview Friday 3rd June 2016.
The remnants of BONNIE put up a spirited fight overnight and started to reform but this was short-lived. Now, the system is moving away from the United States passing north of Bermuda and south of Atlantic Canada and weakening as it does so. By tomorrow evening, this will once again be a remnant area of low pressure. Centred around 80 miles north-east of eastern Honduras, disturbance three is getting its act together. Now on a north-westerly course at 6 knots, it is anticipated that this will develop a defined low pressure centre over the next day or two as it crosses the Yucatan channel.
There is still a westerly drift at altitude which will drag this across the central Gulf towards the northern to central Florida peninsula, where it is expected to make a landfall on Tuesday. This does have tropical storm potential although wind shear aloft is likely to limit expectations. It is too early to speculate much further than this but hurricane intensity is not expected. Stand easy.