Heavy rainfall expected in Florida

General overview Sunday 5th June 2016

Tropical disturbance three has deepened to a depression and is currently centred around 70 miles north of the Yucatan peninsula, and is northbound at 6 knots but will soon turn to the north-east. This has freshened slightly with maximum winds of 40 knots. An increase in ground speed is expected in the coming hours whilst squalls and thunderstorms continue to develop.

This does have the potential to deepen further to become a tropical storm. Whether or not this becomes a storm, it will be a rainmaker and flooding can be expected in Florida indeed, some of the outer showers and thunderstorms associated with this have already begun to affect the southwestern portion of Florida. By Monday night it should make landfall on the Florida coast north of Cedar Key and by Tuesday morning it will have moved off the coast near Jacksonville. This system now has a hurricane severity index of just 1 (0 for size / 1 for intensity) and a predicted peak of 7 (4 for size / 3 for intensity) which is not particularly menacing but does not really reflect the rain threat which may be significant. Rain watch ashore in eastern Florida otherwise stand easy.