Let’s hear it for upper level wind shear.
From west to east;
PETER has weakened to a tropical depression after a prolonged encounter with upper level wind shear. Currently 220 miles north of Puerto Rico with wind speeds down to just 30 knots, just little more than a stiff breeze. PETER is moving at walking pace to the north-nor’west, still buffeted by upper level winds and is expected to weaken beyond recognition over the next 48 hours. Storm cones down (again) over Bermuda.
Extratropical Storm ODETTE is milling around, loosely centred 800 miles south-east of Newfoundland. ODETTE has broken the shackles of the eastbound front which has been driving it for the past 48 hours and is now bimbling around deciding on direction and intensity. Modellers are blindly predicting tracks north, south, east and west with intensities ranging from tropical storm to light winds. Suffice to say this will remain clear of land and ultimately disappear into north Atlantic anonymity.
ROSE has also weakened to a tropical depression. Now centred sat around 1,000 miles north-west of the Cape Verde Islands moving northwest at 10 knots, ROSE is also battling upper level shear and a slug of dry air which will probably see the system off altogether over the next 24-48 hours.
Disturbance Forty Eight is 500 miles west-sou’west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west at 10 knots. This track is expected to shift slightly north of west taking this system towards the north-east Caribbean in about a week. There is still much early speculation although a general consensus seems to be that this will be the next named tropical system in the Atlantic Basin. Given the favourable environment along its possible track, I would suggest this could develop some considerable intensity but with less certainty of track.
Weakening tropical storm force winds in the vicinity of ODETTE otherwise stand easy.
Image Nica Noelle