Short-lived COLIN fading east of Myrtle Beach
From west to east;
Disturbance Eight has dissipated overland in south-eastern Texas and is off our radar now.
Tropical Storm BONNIE is also technically off our screens as it has emerged over the Pacific in the last hour, currently centred 65 miles south-west of Managua, westbound at 12 knots. Whilst we don’t normally report on the Pacific region, we can summarise that BONNIE will intensify, possibly to lower strength hurricane force and will head reasonably safely west-nor’west. This should keep the eye of the storm south of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala but with an expected windfield radius of 150 miles, outer squalls may extend over the coastal areas bringing strong gusts and heavy rain.
Tropical Storm COLIN was a sudden development off the coast of South Carolina overnight. Now centred just 15 miles off Myrtle Beach and headed north-east at a leisurely 8 knots, COLIN is being impacted by strong upper level wind shear and is very disorganised, so is likely to be at peak now with winds gusting 45 knots and a windfield of around 100 miles. The worst of the weather is to the east of the nominal centre. This is likely to be very short-lived and very forgettable, save perhaps for the speed at which it developed which gives some indication of the fertility of the environment along the eastern seaboard for cyclone development.
Disturbance Seven continues to track across the eastern Caribbean Sea currently moving to the west-nor’west at 15 knots. This remains disorganised with no signs of serious convection taking place save for some increasing thunderstorm activity which will fan out across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Thereafter, this will press on towards the west-nor’west across the Dominican Republic and Haiti overnight tonight. The general consensus amongst the professionals is still against this developing when it enters the Gulf of Mexico, so I will go with the flow but stand by my words of caution.
With COLIN fading fast and no serious developments across the region, stand easy.