FIONA set to cross Leeward Islands
From west to east;
The nominal centre of tropical storm FIONA is now just short of 200 miles east of Antigua, westbound at 13 knots producing winds gusting 70 knots over a windfield radius of 110 miles which equates to a hurricane severity index (HSI) rating of 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity). The worst of the muck and filth are displaced to the east, by upper level shear which is also suppressing further development for the time being. This is still on course to cross the Leeward Islands tomorrow and shape up for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola for Sunday. There is still some uncertainty thereafter. If the cyclone weakens further under upper level shear, a track towards Cuba with further weakening due to interaction with land is possible. If the wind shear eases up a more northerly track into the Atlantic is expected on Monday. Should this occur, it is highly likely that FIONA will reach hurricane intensity with another speculative long term threat to Bermuda.
Disturbance Thirty One has slipped out of the convergence zone and it headed into mid-Atlantic anonymity, currently on a track to the west-nor’west at 10 knots. This has a slim chance of developing but in any event will be well clear of land.
Disturbance Thirty Two is currently centred 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west at 15 knots. Development is not expected.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions across the Leeward Islands.