Premature and unfounded end of season chatter amongst the hurricane experts.
Disturbance Thirty Nine is now just past midway between the African coast and the Caribbean moving to the north-west at 15 knots – well clear of the convergence zone. Aerial images show an increase in thunderstorm activity but more significantly, very strong upper level wind shear which should see this off by tomorrow.
This band of wind shear has been building in intensity for a week or more and has drawn some surprising comments from the hurricane heavyweights. My preferred first stop is always Colorado State University who have stated the obvious, that the season has been below normal. They have gone on to say that, in their view ‘anomalously strong vertical wind shear across the entire tropical Atlantic and Caribbean provide little support for tropical cyclone development that would threaten the Americas’. For now, I would add.
During June and July 2022 there were three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. It was also the first time since 1982 that the season had gone from early July to late August without any storms forming. One or two commentators are already reducing their busy-season forecast to average and in some cases, below average. The National Hurricane Centre (Center, for those who must) is monitoring five pressure waves including two in the Caribbean – as indeed are we – but these are barely recognisable at the moment and we would not normally report on them. What is unusual is that the NHC is saying with some confidence that no cyclones are expected for at least a week, which is brave at this point in the season. Whilst I have the greatest respect for these two commentators, I’d say the wave of end of season chatter this has produced is utter cobblers. There is still plenty of above average temperature sea water albeit beginning to cool in places, rising air coming in from the west and of course, determined storms will do what determined storms do. Storms that develop in late October generally form closer to the United States and Caribbean as opposed to systems earlier in the season which move across the Atlantic production line, so there are still many holes in our defences. It only takes one, and we still have over a month to go.
By all means stand easy, but we are a long way from standing down.