First whiff of end of term for 2020 storm season
Disturbance Sixty Five is centred between the Bahamas and Bermuda headed north-east at 7 knots. Despite the cyclone-friendly ground speed, and the absolute conviction of the Canadian guy that this would be storm KAPPA, this will do little more than brush Bermuda with some close-to gale force winds and heavy rain before disappearing into the muck and filth of the north-Atlantic winter.
With no appreciable pressure gradients forming, the reporting region has a whiff of end-of-term about it. This remarkable year will of course not have any forecasters leading the pack to declare the season over (and I am always at least a week later than any of them) but some winter features are taking shape now. There is still warmer than average water in the Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern seaboard, but the southward shift of the jet stream is providing robust upper level shear. There are still windows of opportunity for rising air to spring a rogue storm on us anywhere but particularly in the south-western Caribbean and western Atlantic, and this is not likely to change for another few weeks.
In short, not quite time to summon the Chauffeur – but for now, stand easy.
Image courtesy Jimmy Sime