GRACE closing on Jamaica.
From west to east:
FRED is now well ashore, currently centred 75 miles south of Atlanta headed north-east at 13 knots. Despite weakening steadily, this is still producing strong winds and very heavy rain with heightened risk of flash flooding and mudslides within the southern Appalachians, with an increasing likelihood of isolated tornados in the outer windfield. FRED is unlikely to regain shape before it reaches the Atlantic seaboard.
Tropical Storm GRACE is now 60 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica headed west at 14 knots. This will cross the island in around four hours from now producing winds gusting 50 knots and very heavy rainfall with localised flooding, before a repeat performance passing the Cayman Islands. Despite the prospect of losing some energy as it interacts with land, GRACE is expected to continue strengthening before crossing Yucatan peninsula tomorrow night when it will weaken slightly before emerging into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday afternoon. Conditions across the entire western side of the Gulf of Mexico are ideal for storm development and it is likely to produce a strong tropical storm and possibly a hurricane before landfall somewhere between Tampico and Veracruz as a hurricane on Saturday morning. The current hurricane severity index rating is 2 out of 50 (1 each for size and intensity) and the great and the good are predicting GRACE to peak at 8 (3 for size and 5 for intensity) crossing the Bay of Campeche, but I suspect this is rather conservative.
Oddball Tropical Storm HENRI is now centred around 150 miles south-sou’east of Bermuda moving slowly south-west and producing winds gusting 65 knots. The small windfield radius may keep tropical storm force winds well offshore, indeed this may be the closest HENRI gets to the island. Most pointers have this travelling west then north-east before bothering the Carolinas. HENRI is expected to peak at a hurricane severity index rating of 5 (2 for size and 3 for intensity) with a tropical storm force windfield radius of just 120 miles.
Way out east, Disturbance Thirty is now around two days steaming west-sou’west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving to the west at 18 knots. As things stand, there are no signs of development.
Stand by for tropical storm force conditions across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands later.
Image Teresa Orlowski