From west to east ;
Category Four hurricane SAM is now at peak strength with a hurricane severity index rating of 29 (10 for size and 19 for intensity) which equates to winds gusting 170 knots and a tropical storm force windfield radius of 200 miles. Currently 750 miles south-sou’east of Bermuda, SAM is heading north-west at 12 knots, the first signs of eyewall replacement are showing. The wobble which will turn the cyclone to pass east of Bermuda on Saturday and slowly weaken has begun. The storm will then turn northeast and accelerate, transitioning into an extratropical system as it passes to the south-east of Newfoundland early in the week
Disturbance Fifty One is now 650 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon headed west at 8 knots. Despite its youthful enthusiasm, the system lost shape as it fell foul of wind shear from the pursuing Disturbance Fifty/VICTOR and is now passing over unfavourable waters. It is possible that this may not complete the Atlantic crossing after all.
Fiery Disturbance Fifty surprised no-one when it rapidly developed into Tropical Storm VICTOR which is now 480 miles slightly south of west of the Cape Verde Islands. This was always destined to become a fishstorm and its current track to the west-nor-west at 12 knots is very much in keeping with expectations. VICTOR is digging in as it passes through favourable environmental conditions, and it seems inevitable that this will become a hurricane overnight tomorrow. This is likely to be short-lived but in any event will be well clear of land.
More muck and filth at sea in both the western and eastern Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.
Image Petra Joy