Disturbance Three is now over northern Nicaragua headed north-nor’west at 4 knots. The reduced ground speed will increase the shredding effect of terra firma and there is now some doubt that anything of determination or formation will reach the Bay of Campeche at all. If there is a spirited track to the north, despite plentiful warm water, upper level shear across the entire southern Gulf of Mexico is creating conditions which are only marginal for further development. If development were to take place, it would be in the form of a depression or at worst a kitten-weak tropical storm. Regardless of development, this will produce additional heavy rain for Belize and southern Mexico, which could produce flash flooding and mudslides over the next few days.