Weather watches for the west, east and central Atlantic.
From west to east:
Disturbance Twenty Three, which briefly threatened the Gulf of Mexico last week has moved ashore over the Yucatan peninsula, westbound at 16 knots. Although the disturbance is safely off radar and no longer expected to develop, it will produce enhanced thunderstorm activity across portions of central America, southern Mexico, and the Bay of Campeche overnight and into tomorrow. This was a dead cert, according to the Canadian Guy. Just saying.
Maverick Disturbance Twenty Six lost the plot several hundred miles east of Bermuda and has dissipated.
Disturbance Twenty Five is now centred 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving to the west-nor’west at little more than walking pace. This ground speed over warm, untroubled waters is akin to cyclone fuel however there are wisps of upper level shear which may dampen its ardour. Nonetheless, this is likely to develop prior to passing north of the Leeward Islands overnight on Thursday and will then pass north of Puerto Rico then to the north-east of the Bahamas over the weekend. Storm development can’t be ruled out although as things stand, that will be after clearing the Bahamas with a slim chance of passing close to Bermuda next week. I’m no fan of long term storm forecasts when it involves several land masses and alterations of course and speed but a weather watch is advisable.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is now 350 miles east of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor’west at 8 knots. This has a development window ahead in the next 24-36 hours and could briefly form a tropical depression or weak tropical storm but would be short-lived as it is expected to curve early to the west-nor’west over the eastern Atlantic and is unlikely to bother anyone ashore.
Just five days after we picked it up, the professionals have latched onto a strong tropical wave expected to slip the African coast overnight tomorrow. This has a twinkle in its eye and could begin to develop as it moves across the Cape Verde Islands over the weekend. Too early to predict a track with any accuracy but an early turn into the east central Atlantic is both possible and desirable.
Weather watches for the west, east and central Atlantic otherwise stand easy.