Clouds gathering over Bay of Campeche
The only pressure gradient of any significance across the reporting region today is Disturbance Thirty Eight, an open trough which is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Bay of Campeche. This is expected to move in a north-westerly direction and into the far south-western Gulf of Mexico or the western Bay of Campeche later today but then reach a crossroads of steering currents and meander about for a day or two. Environmental conditions are briefly favourable for development and this may form a tropical depression or weak tropical storm in a couple of days’ time but short-lived before it moves ashore into Mexico by the weekend. None of the reliable agencies are considering any threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico. I’m not so sure. Any development over the unchurned warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico cannot be completely dismissed but as the only commentator who sees to agree with me is the Canadian guy, perhaps I should heed the experts.
Stand easy.