From west to east:
The remnant trough of what was once Tropical Storm PETER has made a brief resurgence just over 400 miles south of Bermuda. This is little more than a loosely organised belt of showers and thunderstorms. Post-PETER is expected to move off to the north-nor’east over the next few days before merging with a cold front and eventually disappearing altogether. Petering out, you might say. I’ll get my coat……
Category Four Hurricane SAM is now centred around 725 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving west-nor’west at 8 knots. SAM has intensified beyond forecast and is a very powerful hurricane indeed. The current hurricane severity index rating is 26 out of 50 (7 size, 19 intensity) taken from observed wind speeds gusting 160 knots – the take-off speed of a Boeing 747 if you like – with a windfield radius of just 120 miles. This is a concentrated and highly destructive storm for anyone unfortunate enough at sea to be within its vicinity. Having said that, fluctuations in intensity are likely to occur over the next couple of days as it turns to the northwest which may mean that SAM has peaked. The cyclone is forecast to continue to gradually weaken and pass to the northeast of the north-eastern Caribbean overnight on Wednesday. Once past the north-eastern Caribbean, SAM will turn in a north-nor’westerly direction and start to accelerate and weaken further. This weakening is vitally important for the good people of Bermuda who can expect a very close encounter on Friday, albeit early days yet. Any threat to Florida and the Bahamas has diminished considerably.
Disturbance Fifty One has piped up around 1,100 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon headed west at just 5 knots. Conditions ahead are only marginally favourable and this may dissipate before reaching the Lesser Antilles.
Disturbance Fifty is also a newbie today. This is just slipping the African coast moving west at 10 knots. Environmental conditions are expected to be favourable for development as the disturbance moves into the eastern Atlantic. Far too early to speculate.
Spare a thought for any poor soul at sea in the vicinity of SAM, otherwise stand easy.
Image Al Goldstein