From west to east;

Disturbance Fifty Two is close to the coast of Nicaragua now and moving towards the beach at 14 knots. No development is expected as this moves ashore tonight.

Disturbance Fifty Three has opened into a wide trough across the central Bahamas. Environmental conditions due to upper level shear are expected to remain unfavourable as the system moves slowly to the northwest at around 10 knots. As this approaches the Carolinas, it is likely to succumb to an eastbound front, giving this limited prospects for cyclone development.

Disturbance Fifty Four has been identified or about 500 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon heading a tad north of west at 15 knots. This is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday producing increased shower and thunderstorm activity but with only marginal development prospects.

Well to the north, SAM has transitioned into a subtropical storm with its own frontal systems and behaviour, now centred some 700 miles east of Newfoundland. This has opened up its spread with a windfield radius of 400 miles and winds still touching 100 knots in gusts. This no longer poses a threat to land but is still a beast of a cyclone for seafarers. SAM is accelerating to the north-nor’east now and in theory lining up to pass somewhere between Iceland and the British Isles and Irish Republic. In all likelihood, this will dissipate before reaching either but will undoubtedly add muck and filth to the usual foul weather which rolls in on us from the Atlantic at this time of year. Regular readers won’t be surprised that the Canadian Guy has this tracking across southern England, suspiciously close to my home.

More muck and filth from SAM in the North Atlantic otherwise, stand easy.

Image Sharon Mitchell