EARL and DANIELLE seaborne.
From west to east;
Disturbance Twenty Five has made good use of its slow track over warm waters and formed Tropical Storm EARL some 140 miles east-nor’east of the British Virgin Islands. EARL is moving to the west-nor’west at around 10 knots with maximum winds gusting 45 knots with a fairly small windfield of 80 miles. This translates to a hurricane severity index rating of just 2 out of a possible 50 (1 each for size and intensity). This cyclone is being battered by strong upper level wind shear which is pushing most of the muck and filth to the north-east of the eye. This is also preventing any significant strengthening as it passes just north of the northern Leeward Islands and British Virgin Islands tomorrow but will produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds overnight. On Monday, EARL will slowly strengthen as it turns north to pass well to the east of the Bahamas, thereafter it is expected to strengthen quickly as wind shear decreases and it turns to the northeast to pass south-east of Bermuda. By this time, this is expected to have a hurricane severity index rating of around 10 (say 5 each for size and intensity) which would translate to 65 knot winds and a windfield radius of 150 miles, give or take. No guarantees either way for Bermuda until EARL has turned.
Tropical Storm DANIELLE is still in the back of beyond some 650 miles west of the Azores. The cyclone is slowly drifting west with maximum sustained winds of 65 knots and is expected to continue meandering before turning to the north-east and accelerating away early next week. Some strengthening is expected over the next few days before weakening occurs as it heads off, but in any event will remain deep sea.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is now 550 miles north-west of the Cape Verde Islands. A continued west-nor’west track into Atlantic anonymity is expected over the next few days before the disturbance dissipates early next week. Tropical development is not expected.
The long-awaited tropical wave forecast to slip the coast of West Africa tomorrow is now expected to mimic Disturbance Twenty Seven and make an early track to the north-west into the sub-tropical Atlantic where conditions are only marginal for development. I’d wait until this is seaborne before making an rash promises.
Stand by for heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands and for muck and filth to the west of the Azores.