Increasing muck and filth at sea in the western Atlantic
From west to east;
Tropical Storm EARL is currently located 150 miles north-east of San Juan, Puerto Rico headed west by north at a leisurely 6 knots leaving the northern Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands in its wake with heavy rainfall and some strong gusts which will diminish overnight. Observed wind speeds of 60 knots have been reported over a radius of 85 miles. In terms of hurricane severity index (HSI) rating, EARL is only clocking up 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 for size and 2 for intensity), but this is far short of peak. As this cyclone moves away from the islands of the north-east Caribbean, despite some upper level shear, it is expected to develop into a hurricane in two to three days’ time as it passes slowly over unchurned warm water. All eyes are on Bermuda now. The current consensus is for a wide pass to the east but any deviation in track towards the west may threaten the islands later in the week, and with an expected increase in intensity to category two hurricane strength on the cards, a weather watch may be needed as this will have an expected peak HSI rating of 15 (6 for size and 9 for intensity) which equates to 100 knot gusts and a windfield radius of 130 miles.
Fish storm, DANIELLE is now centred around 750 miles west of the Azores and almost at rest, although aerial imagery is starting to show a slow nudge towards the north-east. This is only marginally within category one hurricane definitions with winds gusting 85 knots and a small windfield radius of 90 miles. This equates to an HSI rating of 9 (4 for size, and 5 intensity) but environmental conditions north and east are favourable for development. DANIELLE will intensify however there is a fine balancing act with this type of storm as it will lose energy as it accelerates but also absorb energy over favourable waters. My money would be on it reaching category two with winds gusting 95 to 100 knots and a windfield radius of 150 miles, which would give an HSI rating of 13 (6 for size and 7 for intensity) before dissipating into north Atlantic anonymity. This will remain well clear of land and anyone at sea with an ounce of savvy will have found their away round it long before now.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is centred 450 north-west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor’west at 8 knots. Despite a slow ground speed which would encourage cyclone development, this has a whiff of Saharan sand in its convection cycle and may struggle for survival. Whatever it does, will be far from land.
Disturbance Twenty Nine has slipped the coast of West Africa and does look to be shaping up to follow Disturbance Twenty Seven but it is early days yet and no objective assessment can be made until it is seaborne.
Weather watch on EARL and DANIELLE both intensifying and producing muck and filth in the western Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.