EARL raising early storm signals for Bermuda.
From west to east;
Tropical storm EARL is becoming better organised now as it slips the last of the south-westerly wind shear and may reach hurricane intensity in a few hours. Currently centred 590 miles south of Bermuda headed north at a leisurely 6 knots, this is producing winds gusting 80 knots over a windfield radius of 110 miles, which equates to a hurricane severity index (HSI) rating of 6 out of a possible 50 (2 for size, 4 for intensity). Whilst the last of the wind shear is still displacing the worst excesses to the east of the nominal centre, this storm will widen and intensify. The important question is when will it turn to the north-east. The later it leaves it, the greater the impact is likely to be on Bermuda and at worst, a very close category three hurricane pass with winds gusting 120 knots and a windfield radius approaching 200 miles which would give an HSI of 19 (8 for size and 11 for intensity). Tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall with high waves and potential coastal flooding can be expected for Bermuda beginning on Thursday. At some time, as well as the turn to the north-east, EARL will accelerate and as a consequence, begin to weaken. The sooner that begins, the better it will be for Bermuda but it is fair to say, the storm is likely to be at peak at its closest point of approach.
Hurricane DANIELLE is at peak now 600 miles west-nor’west of the Azores and has begun turning to the north-east. This is still moving slowly but should start to accelerate and gradually dissipate. This is still blowing with 80 knot gusts and has a windfield of 150 miles (HSI of 11 which is 6 for size and 5 for intensity). This will pass well to the northwest of the Azores, then transition into an extratropical storm by Thursday over the North Atlantic.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is in the east central Atlantic headed north and leaving the cyclone-fertile convergence zone. This will either dissipate or be consumed by DANIELLE but without nearing land or developing significantly.
Disturbance Twenty Nine is just clearing the south-west of the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at 12 knots. This is expected to make a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the coming days when conditions for development may be favourable but it is not expected to threaten the Caribbean.
Disturbance Thirty is crossing the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west at 10 knots but with an as yet indecipherable track. The general consensus is that this will be a non-starter. I won’t argue with the professionals but wouldn’t bet on it.
Stand by for worsening conditions south of Bermuda and continued filth from stormy DANIELLE.