Worsening forecast as EARL shapes up for Bermuda.
From west to east:
EARL deepened overnight and has reached hurricane intensity. Currently 450 miles south of Bermuda and headed north at just 6 knots, this cyclone is producing winds touching 95 knots in gusts with a windfield radius of 130 miles which gives a hurricane severity index (HSI) rating of 11 out of a possible 50 points (5 for size and 6 for intensity). There are few words of comfort for weather watches over Bermuda today. EARL has found a development sweet spot and combined with a slow ground speed, is going to strengthen significantly. Furthermore, there is no sign yet of the relief turn towards the north-east which would have increased the passing distance from Bermuda. The later the turn, the nearer the eye will pass, I’m afraid. As things stand, EARL is expected to be at peak as a major hurricane around the time of closest point of approach to Bermuda on Thursday with destructive winds over a windfield radius of 260 miles which equates to an HSI rating of 26 (13 each for both size and intensity). This is a horrid storm. The first of the swell should reach the islands as early as this evening and major coastal flooding is becoming more likely on Thursday while heavy squalls will fan out over the island on Thursday morning and overnight into Friday. Not that anyone is likely to care at the moment, but after passing Bermuda, EARL will accelerate into the north Atlantic and eventually dissipate at sea.
DANIELLE is still at hurricane strength 600 miles west-nor’west of the Azores but is at peak now as it starts picking up speed and heading harmlessly north-east. With winds gusting 85 knots and a windfield radius of 200 miles, DANIELLE has an HSI rating of 14 (9 for size and 5 for intensity) and is slowly beginning to transition into a larger non-tropical storm system which should stay well clear of land and dissipate at sea.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is in the central Atlantic, well to the north of the tropical convergence zone and is likely to be absorbed by the outreach of DANIELLE in the next day or two without further development.
Disturbance Twenty Nine is now centred 450 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west at 10 knots. This has become more organised as it enters a patch of favourable development conditions but is expected track to the west-nor’west over the next few days over less fertile waters and not impact the Caribbean.
Disturbance Thirty has just slipped the Cape Verde Islands is moving to the west at 10 knots. This is still rather disorganised and course, speed and development are as yet uncertain.
Stand by for worsening conditions approaching Bermuda.