KARL weakening over southern Bay of Campeche.
From west to east;
KARL barely qualifies for tropical storm status now. Currently 100 miles north of Cuidad Del Carmen in the south-east corner of the Bay of Campeche, what remains of the cyclone is headed south-east at little more than walking pace. This is producing winds gusting 45 knots over a fairly small windfield radius of 60 miles. An aerial reconnaissance flight has reported very strong wind shear knocking seven bells out of the convection column. This will weaken KARL to a depression before moving across the offshore leases into southern Mexico early tomorrow morning and dissipate soon after making landfall, which is still expected to occur east of Coatzacoalcos. A prolonged and slow sea passage will make this a rainmaker at and after landfall with a high risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
Disturbance Thirty Nine has just slipped the Africa coast and is expected to track to the north-west where the smart money is on this dissipating in the open Atlantic. Too early to say that with any certainty but it is a possibility.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions across the south-eastern Bay of Campeche otherwise stand easy.