Busy skies over reporting region.
From west to east:
Yesterday’s dark horse Disturbance Forty is now 250 miles south-sou’east of Cape Cod heading north-nor’east at 10 knots. While this will bring enhanced thunderstorm activity to parts of New England today, no tropical or subtropical development is expected.
Disturbance Forty Three has piped up to the north of Puerto Rico moving slowly to the north-nor’west over the next few days. While thunderstorm activity is currently disorganised, conditions will become more favourable for subtropical development over the next few days albeit unlikely to impact the continental United States or Bahamas.
A complex interaction between Disturbances Forty One and Forty Two could lead to tropical cyclone formation over the southern Caribbean by the weekend. Disturbance Forty One is currently approaching Trinidad followed by Disturbance Forty Two about a day behind. By the weekend, these two disturbances are expected to combine into a single disturbance over the south-central Caribbean to form a broad area of low pressure, which will probably then move west towards Central America where environmental conditions a looking more favourable for development. Some observers are asserting that there is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico. I’d keep my powder dry on that one.
Stand easy.