Weather watch for southern Caribbean.
Disturbance Forty Three is centred close to the north of Puerto Rico moving north at 10 knots. Whilst conditions are likely to become more favourable for subtropical development over the next few days, steering currents should see this clear the United States and the Bahamas without any drama.
There is a complex interaction going on between Disturbances Forty One and Forty Two which could lead to tropical cyclone formation over the southern Caribbean next week. Disturbance Forty One is kitten-weak, centred close to the west of Trinidad moving west-nor’west at just 7 knots while Forty Two is about one day’s steaming astern, just a day east of Trinidad moving west at 15 knots. By the weekend, these two disturbances are expected to combine into a single disturbance over the Caribbean with rising air expected in the region over warm water. The combination of these factors is expected to form a broad area of developing westbound low pressure. It’s always tricky to predict what any pressure systems will do when they coincide but the smart money is on a track across the Caribbean towards central America. We shall see.
Stand easy.