Weather watch for the south-eastern seaboard
From west to east;
The last knockings of LISA are in the south-western Bay of Campeche 55 miles northeast of Veracruz, meandering around but generally heading east. This is producing barely perceptible winds of 35 knots with the odd thunderstorm. Some of these thunderstorms are trying to organise surface circulation but a combination of strong wind shear and drying air being drawn into the convection cycle will put the mockers on development and should see LISA off in a day or two.
In keeping with localised opportunist developments rather than cyclones crossing the Atlantic at this time of year, we tend to keep a closer eye on ripples in pressure gradients in the western side of our reporting region. We reported on one such potential development yesterday which has become Disturbance Forty Five, a burst of thunderstorms across a large part of the eastern Caribbean extending north over the Atlantic to the north of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This is likely to form a low pressure system just north of the eastern Caribbean and east of the south-eastern Bahamas tomorrow and environmental conditions may be favourable enough to develop into either a tropical or subtropical system thereafter. This will move to the west-nor’west across the Bahamas and towards the Florida peninsula early next week. It is too early to say with any conviction where this will go or how intense it will become but we still consider this to be a potential rainmaker along the coast from the Carolinas to Florida with some coastal flooding. Early days but worth watching.
Disturbance Forty Four is still dragging it out 650 miles east of Bermuda. Thunderstorm activity with the disturbance has become more concentrated and better organised overnight and conditions are marginally favourable for development into a fish storm over the next day or two before it fades and heads north-east into Atlantic winter anonymity.
Weather watch for the south-eastern seaboard and north central Atlantic otherwise stand easy.