NICOLE set for Florida category one hurricane landfall.
From west to east;
There seems to be a steadily increasing view that NICOLE has the makings of a rotter. Currently centred 450 miles to the east-nor’east of Freeport, Bahamas moving to the north-west at 10 knots and, for those who will, is transitioning into a tropical storm with a hurricane severity index rating of just 6 out of a possible 50 (4 for size and 2 for intensity). Although only producing winds touching 40 knots, NICOLE is a large storm already with a 300 mile windfield radius and is crossing warm, unchurned waters and gathering energy in an area of almost zero upper level intrusion. A track across the northern Bahamas into southern Florida as a hurricane is expected overnight tomorrow. There is no consensus on landfall as there are still twists and turns ahead but is likely to be at peak intensity with an HSI rating of 14 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 6 intensity) which would equate to 70 knot gusts over a 400 mile tropical storm force windfield. Given the size of the windfield and the relatively weaker core, compared say to IAN, the exact location of landfall will be arbitrary but in our view not far from the Fort Pierce/Vero Beach area in the small hours of Thursday. The strong ridge of high pressure to the north will force NICOLE to describe a curved track which will see a heightened risk of coastal flooding, powerful wind strengths in squalls, very rainfall and high seas inshore from the northern Bahamas and Florida and north into the Carolinas over the weekend. It is anticipated that NICOLE will be relatively short-lived and merge with a cold front offshore South Carolina on Saturday but I wouldn’t put my shirt on that and a damaging swipe along the eastern seaboard is not out of the question.
Maverick Disturbance Forty Four is now 700 miles east-nor’east of Bermuda and is beginning to accelerate to the north-east into the gloom of the North Atlantic winter.
Stand by for tropical storm and later hurricane conditions over the Bahamas and later eastern Florida.