NICOLE on final approach for Florida category one hurricane landfall.
Maverick Disturbance Forty Four was absorbed by an eastbound front in the north Atlantic overnight. All eyes are now on NICOLE.
On final approach to Florida now, NICOLE is on radar approaching the Bahamas and centred 235 miles due east of Palm Beach, headed a midge’s north of west at 10 knots. Winds gusting 85 knots have been observed in advance squalls and a reconnaissance aircraft has reported a clearly defined eye formation in the last 30 minutes. The current hurricane severity index (HSI) rating is 10 out of 50 (6 for size and 5 for intensity) with a wide tropical storm force windfield of 450 miles. This will only increase slightly now but intensity is expected to increase further to give an HSI at landfall of 14 (7 for size and 7 intensity) but as ever, these are conservative values. The glass is continuing to fall and NICOLE is within hailing distance of becoming a category one hurricane, which traditionally occurs soon after I hit send on this daily bulletin. Conditions across the Bahamas are already deteriorating and are expected to become quite foul this afternoon with hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the north-western Bahamas. Further west, the outermost rainbands of the cyclone’s huge windfield are nearing tropical force along the northern and central Florida peninsula coast from St. Augustine to Cape Canaveral and spreading along the coast as NICOLE approaches. Coastal flooding is expected along the Atlantic coast of Florida this morning as conditions worsen and the heavier rain bands are beginning to threaten an increasing risk of flooding. As we predicted, landfall is expected in the small hours of tomorrow morning near Vero Beach when NICOLE will be at peak intensity with the worst of the muck and filth in a wide arc from north-west through north to north-east of the eye. Much of this will be at sea and will likely result in cycling of precipitation and very heavy rainfall.
After landfall, the high pressure ridge to the north will cause NICOLE to curve across northern Florida then accelerate to the north-east and weaken over Georgia before merging with a cold front and dissipating soon thereafter. This is far too speculative for my liking but the prospect of a destructive sweep of the eastern seaboard sems to be diminishing.
Stand by for hurricane conditions across the Bahamas and the eastern coast of Florida.