Flash flooding ashore expected south east Mexico
Sunday 19th June 2016
Disturbance six is now centred about 160 miles east-sou'east of Tuxpan, Mexico and is headed west-nor'west at a leisurely 7 knots. Satellite imagery shows that squalls radiate from the centre to the east and northeast of the circulation centre. This will continue tracking on its current heading until it runs ashore on the coast of Mexico late on Monday afternoon or early evening. Conditions across the Bay of Campeche are not very favourable for significant development, though the disturbance could become a tropical depression before it hits the beach. This disturbance will produce scattered squalls across the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Monday afternoon when gusts in squalls may reach 50 knots.
Slow moving disturbances over warm water invariably become rainmakers. Heavy rain will move into the coastal areas of eastern Mexico tomorrow will spread inland and move across mountainous areas from Monday afternoon into Tuesday and produce flash flooding. The low pressure system off the eastern seaboard remains nontropical. It is becoming less likely that the system will be able to transition into a tropical or a subtropical storm and will in any event remain well offshore. However, heavy surf is likely for the beaches along the mid Atlantic and northeast United States coast. Galoshes in southern Mexico otherwise stand easy.