Reconnaissance aircraft identifies DANIELLE

Monday 20th June 2016

After a reconnaissance flight by a US Air Force Reserve aircraft, tropical depression four was upgraded to tropical storm DANIELLE. This is the fourth named storm of the 2016 season. This is close to the coast of Mexico and will make a landfall in the next few hours. As storms go, this is no record breaker and will weaken as it runs up the beach tonight. The centre itself slipped a little north of previous forecasts and is currently sat just 50 miles south-sou'east of Tuxpan and is moving west at 5 knots. For those who must, the storm is at maximum predicted hurricane severity rating of 3 (1 for size, 2 for intensity)

Some modest strengthening before landfall cannot be ruled out, but by no means anything rapid or significant as the windfield is already ashore and storms don't feed well on wet mud. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with DANIELLE which may cause flash floods and mudslides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days. No other disturbances are expected over the next seven days. However, some speculators are hinting at the possibility of a disturbance forming in the western Caribbean at the end of this month or during the first week of July. Pure guesswork in my view. Utter tosh in my view.

Stand by Tuxpan.

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