Wellingtons in Mexico
Friday 24th June 2016
There are two low pressure cells leaving the southern states now but these are embedded in an upper level trough which will probably whisk them out to the north and west guided by the position of the Bermuda high. Incidentally, this pressure system is also in part to blame for humid warm and convected air coming into the UK today. From France. That's right. Today. From France.
Disturbance seven is now in the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche and moving to the west-nor'west at 12 knots. This will move across the Bay of Campeche and into eastern Mexico over the next 36 hours. Scattered showers and storms, some heavy, can be expected over the next 36 hours in the Bay of Campeche as the system crosses the bay. There remains only a slight chance of the system becoming a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before moving ashore into eastern Mexico where it is likely to meet its Waterloo and a crushing defeat. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern.
Disturbance eight is now seaborne in the southern Caribbean and moving quickly to the west. The system is expected to move quickly west through the eastern and central Caribbean over the next few days. By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to decelerate considerably in the western Caribbean. By Thursday and Friday of next week, it may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Yucatan peninsula and Central America. Development chances within the next week remain low, however and this is quite likely to surrender meekly and wave a white flag to upper level shear.
Wellington boots needed in southern Mexico otherwise stand easy.