Two prospects for the Atlantic
Monday 22nd August 2016
FIONA is centred around 400 miles north-east of San Juan and is headed north-nor'west at 12 knots. This has succumbed to strong shear and has weakened to a tropical depression and is set to be little more than a remnant low within the next 24 hours. One or two storm enthusiasts have this regenerating in four to five days time. I can't see it myself, but even if it were to arise from its death bed and start dashing around like a spring chicken, there would be no impacts on land aside from gusty winds and periods of heavy rain around Bermuda.
The projections for tropical disturbance twenty six have started coming in based on overnight observations. This is now centred around 550 miles east-sou'east of Antigua and headed west at 18 knots. There is still a bit of a donkey's breakfast of high level wind shear in the region, so this is unlikely to develop tropical storm characteristics this side of the weekend but will produce squalls across an area between Antigua and Puerto Rico in about two days time. Most forecasters have the system turning away from the Caribbean and making a track towards the Bahamas towards the end of the week, where storm favourable conditions may give this a shot at development.
Disturbance twenty seven is now about 250 miles south-sou'west of the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at a respectable 15 knots. This low pressure cell is becoming better organised and will almost certainly develop into a tropical depression later today, and a possibility of developing further over the coming week. This is causing some excitement amongst the chattering community as far as storm prospects go, but does look as if it may turn early and head for mid-Atlantic obscurity.