HERMINE crossing southern Georgia

Friday 2nd September 2012

For those in the south eastern United States, any update I give on HERMINE will be far less informed than is available to them locally. HERMINE has been downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm with a hurricane severity of 10 (5 size / 5 intensity) and a tropical storm windfield radius of 260 miles. This is still bad news. Tracking east to north east across southern Georgia at 12 knots, HERMINE will cross the coast of South Carolina by this evening and by early Saturday, will be centred over the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Further strengthening will occur and it is possible that this will become a hurricane again. Current expectations are that it will move slowly and erratically for a few days, producing prolonged strong onshore winds over several tidal cycles before heading seaward. In the meantime, coastal flooding will continue for the west coast and Big Bend of Florida and from northern Florida through the North Carolina coast.

Tropical Storm GASTON will continue to weaken as it tracks near the Azores over the next 24-36 hours and then dissipate in about 36-48 hours. No significant impacts to land are expected however surfers in the south west of the British Isles may experience an some exhilarating swell from late Sunday onwards.

Disturbance thirty is a tropical wave centred around 750 miles north-nor'east of the mouth of the Amazon and is moving west at a brisk 22 knots, Dry air is still dominating the system keeping development chances very low as it moves across the tropical Atlantic but conditions remain favourable around the Leeward Islands where it is expected by late Sunday or Monday.

Disturbance thirty one has emerged off the coast of West Africa but looks fairly weak and may not make the crossing. Stand by for torrential rain and costal flooding across the northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia.