HERMINE offshore - surf in Cornwall

Saturday 3rd September 2016

Tropical storm HERMINE is seaborne again, now 60 miles south east of Virginia Beach moving east at 18 knots. This is still a strong tropical storm with 60 knot winds gusting 75 in the eastern sector. This has a current hurricane severity index of 7 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 3 intensity) and is expected to regain hurricane intensity to 13 (8 for size/ 5 for intensity). HERMINE should move to the east-northeast through the remainder of the day today and thereafter should slow significantly. A turn to the north and eventually to the west is forecast, taking HERMINE to within 100 miles of the New Jersey Coast late Monday. Thereafter, a slow northeast and eventual eastward track is forecast, which will take HERMINE a little south of Long Island and Cape Cod. Winds of tropical storm force may affect much of the coast from North Carolina to Boston. These areas are likely to dodge storm force winds but there is likely to be a significant rise in the water levels along the Mid Atlantic coast during the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, HERMINE will head seaward again.

Disturbance thirty is a tropical wave moving west at 12 knots. This will bring enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. There is not much chatter of development but can't be ruled out as it enters the north western Caribbean.

Disturbance thirty one is about a day's steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands and expected to turn to the northwest, remain weak, and not significantly impact any land areas. GASTON has dissipated although remnants including an exhilarating swell for surfers in the south west of the British Isles can be expected later this weekend. Until HERMINE doubles back towards the eastern seaboard, stand easy.