Recon aircraft report on HERMINE

Sunday 4th September 2016

Post-tropical storm HERMINE has begun to leave the eastern seaboard in its wake but a dangerous storm surge is still possible along the coast from Virginia to New Jersey. Currently 350 miles east of southern Maryland, eastbound at 10 knots this still has some warm water ahead so the current hurricane severity rating of 9 out of a possible 50 points (5 size, 4 intensity) is expected to peak at 12 (7 size / 5 intensity) but even with a tropical storm windfield radius of 240 miles, no wind impact is expected ashore but a dangerous tidal surge may still be an issue. There is a slight possibility of a distant swipe at Newfoundland but I'd emphasise slight.A possibly demented aviator has just buzzed HERMINE and found winds just below hurricane strength in the northeast quadrant of the storm indicating a possible deepening to hurricane intensity tonight or tomorrow morning for the amusement of fish and sailors.

Disturbance thirty is still an open tropical wave bringing enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to the Lesser Antilles today. Development chances are still slim but cannot be discounted when the system reaches the west Caribbean in 5-6 days. Opinions are split between this heading straight to central America or a nudge north into the Gulf in around 8 days from today. After the excitement of the past week, disturbance thirty one, two days west of the Cape Verde islands is not really exciting anyone and an early turn into mid-Atlantic anonymity looks most likely.

Stand by for a final storm surge along the north central eastern seaboard. 

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