KARL shaping up for deep sea unpleasantness
Friday 16th September 2016
Disturbance thirty is now centred around 140 miles to the east of the lower Texas coast. Convective activity has reduced since sunset last night with no major re-intensification. Thunderstorms could flare back up again today however the chances for development are fairly low.
Tropical storm JULIA has rallied briefly now centred about 200 miles south east of Charleston. JULIA will continue to meander aimlessly off the coast of South Carolina through the weekend as it slowly weakens to a tropical depression later today.
Tropical storm IAN remains out in the middle of the North Atlantic far from any land areas making life unpleasant for sailors but well clear of land. IAN will skirt along the edge of an upper level trough and frontal boundary today as it transitions into an extra-tropical storm. Over the weekend IAN will become absorbed by a larger low pressure system in the vicinity of Iceland.
Tropical storm KARL is over 1800 miles to the east of the northeastern Caribbean, moving west at 12 knots through an environment composed of moderate to strong wind shear and dry air. This will keep KARL from strengthening through the next three days. Beyond that, as it moves towards the Leeward Islands, It will begin to strengthen more as conditions become more favourable. The good news is that the threat to the north east Caribbean is decreasing as this looks to be turning early well to the east and may miss the eastern seaboard altogether. The bad news is that conditions are favourable for this to become a punchy little bruiser and may become a hurricane by next Wednesday as it turns northwest towards Bermuda. This is being given a predicted hurricane severity rating of 18 (10 for intensity and 8 for size). More misery for sailors but another dodged bullet for all points west.
Disturbance thirty four is crossing the the coast of West Africa now and will move to the west over the next couple of days with a turn toward the west-nor'west or northwest as it passes the Cape Verde Islands. There is a chance of development but does seem to be headed for the east or central Atlantic. Early days of course. Stand by for some green water at sea but stand easy ashore.