MATTHEW passing through Bahamas tonight
Wednesday 5th October - daily bulletin
Hurricane MATTHEW is now 425 miles southeast of Miami headed north-nor'west at 8 knots. MATTHEW has not yet fully recovered from its run ashore in Cuba but is expected to become at least a strong Category 3 hurricane with winds in excess of 115 knots once it moves into the Bahamas tonight. This is slightly less than previously expected but still a vicious storm. When this revives, it will have a hurricane severity rating of 28 out of a possible 50 points (13 size, 15 intensity) and a tropical storm windfield of 250 miles. The current consensus is for MATTHEW to pass '20 miles east' of the coast of Florida. I have no idea when or how intelligent storm watchers acquired such pin-point accuracy and I would be strongly inclined to disregard it as nonsense - which is perhaps a polite version of how I really feel. This storm will pass close to or over the coast of Florida and may run parallel as far as Jacksonville, when it seems there is a growing view that it will arc off to the east. This will keep MATTHEW farther south of the Carolinas over the weekend, far enough that the North and South Carolina coasts may experience only low-end tropical storm-force winds
Tropical Storm NICOLE is located 490 miles north-nor'east of San Juan, Puerto Rico and is moving toward the west-nor'west at 5 knots. By early Friday morning, NICOLE will turn to the east and be out of our hair without approaching land.
Disturbance thirty eight is located about 320 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving quickly towards the west. This will bring showers and storms to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. As this tracks into the central Caribbean next week, conditions may be more favourable for development. We will watch this.
Disturbance forty is about 750 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon and moving west at 16 knots. This system remains disorganised with no development expected.
Stand to Bahamas and stand by along the entire coast of Florida.