Static disturbance causing heavy rain in Central America

Wednesday 19th October 2016

From west to east

Disturbance forty six is stationary trough of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean close to Nicaragua's eastern Mosquito Coast. This is likely to hang around in the same area for a few more days until the deadlock between steering currents aloft is broken. This is making heavy rain across the region but proximity to land should prevent storm development.

Centred about 90 miles east of the Bahamas, disturbance forty four has opened up into a trough of low pressure under the influence of strong upper level westerly winds and dry air aloft which will also prevent tropical development. These conditions are expected to improve over the next couple of days which may allow some subtropical or tropical development to take place over the next few days. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to move to the north-nor'west and then to the north, remaining well east of the eastern seaboard.

NICOLE is off our radar now having dissipated into gloomy North Atlantic latitudes.

Disturbance forty five is centred about 1800 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west at 12 knots. This is showing signs of curving off to the west-nor'west over the next few days and is expected to pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles early next week.

Little sign of development yet. Stand easy.