Storm clouds gathering in the south western Caribbean
Tuesday 15th November 2016
Little has changed with disturbance fifty two since yesterday. This remains loosely centred in the extreme south west Caribbean. The odds on a tropical depression or storm developing on Friday are fairly high however there is significant uncertainty as to the track.
A strong cold front will be sweeping across the Gulf this weekend. This should prevent any movement north west into the Gulf. Building high pressure to the north of this front will move off the eastern seaboard early next week, in all likelihood holding the storm in the central Caribbean.
Steering currents aloft may drive the storm south of west and inland into Central America next week, which would probably be the preferred option, however a track to the northeast toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic cannot be dismissed.