Disturbance fifty two development dragging on

Thursday 17th November 2016

Waiting for disturbance fifty two to move is like watching cricket. It's painfully slow, very dull and a safe bet that nothing interesting is going to happen at all. Currently stationary some 300 miles north of Panama in net zero steering currents, there is little change in position since yesterday. This disturbance is almost certain to become a tropical depression by this weekend since aerial imagery indicates the presence of a broad circulation centre. Observers are still leaning towards tropical storm development but a little later than initially expected, early in the coming week. Nobody, not even the Canadian guy has mentioned hurricane strength since yesterday.

Confidence in a brief seagoing career before landfall in Nicaragua is growing. High pressure across the southern states and a strong cold front descending on the Gulf of Mexico from the north west by the middle of next week should trap this storm in the south west Caribbean.

Stand easy.