Disturbance fifty two developing
Sunday 20th November 2016
Overnight satellite images show that disturbance fifty two is becoming better organised with spoke-like bands of squalls radiating from a nominal centre around 150 miles north of Panama. There seems to be little doubt that this will become a tropical depression within the next 24-36 hours and a tropical storm beyond.
Avid storm enthusiasts have already given this an anticipated maximum hurricane severity rating of 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size / 5 for intensity) and a tropical storm force wind radius of 105 miles.
The disturbance is expected to track very slowly east until Tuesday morning then turn back to the west. Once it makes the westward turn on Tuesday, conditions across the southwest Caribbean will be very favourable for steady strengthening. Landfall is predicted for southern Nicaragua late on Thursday as a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane. There remains no threat to the islands of the northern Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico.