Two disturbances producing squalls
Thursday 15th June 2017
Disturbance Six has formed close to the west of the Windward Islands - just inside the Caribbean - and is moving west-nor'west at about 8 knots. This seems to be set to rendezvous with the low pressure area we are expecting to form from a monsoon trough in the far west Caribbean. This trough will form near or over the Yucatan peninsula and track into the south-west Gulf of Mexico early next week. Once there, environmental conditions in are expected to be favourable for tropical development into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by the middle of next week.
As this prediction includes partial tracking across a land mass, uncertainly in forward track exists. Nonetheless, the smart money has this heading into Mexico after a fairly short seagoing career. Despite this, chunky squalls and hearty gusts of wind may be felt over the offshore leases of the northern Gulf.
Disturbance Five is now centred around two and a half days sailing west of the Cape Verde Islands and is westbound at about 10 knots. Aerial imagery shows some surface circulation now but still no sign of vertically organisation. The system should reach the westernmost islands of the Caribbean early next week where it will produce heavy squalls and gusty winds, but upper level shears should prevent significant development.