Catastrophists' favourite gathering over West Africa
Thursday 27th July 2017
Disturbance Nineteen is crossing the southern Caribbean, currently close to the Netherlands Antilles island of Bonaire. This is headed west into upper level wind shear which is preventing development.
Disturbance Eighteen is well north east of the Lesser Antilles and headed seaward without any discernible development aside from the odd shower.
Disturbance Twenty One is around two day's steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at 12 knots. Conditions ahead including dry air and upper level shear do not favour development although interaction with another low pressure area may add some oomph.
The catastrophists' pin-up Disturbance Twenty Two is still gathering cloud ashore over west Africa, currently somewhere over the head of the Gambia river and expected to cross the coast tomorrow. Early deepening is expected on the Atlantic crossing. We'll see.