Potential development headed for Gulf of Mexico

Friday 4th August 2017

From west to east

Disturbance Twenty Two which was given dead cert status by the Canadian guy wafted ashore in Nicaragua overnight after a spectacularly uneventful passage from The Gambia. Not a word from the hut on Baffin Island.

Our own educated guess for Disturbance Twenty Three seems to be running a different race altogether. Currently centred 275 miles south of Port Au Prince and headed west at 18 knots, environmental conditions are giving green lights from here to Brownsville. As things stand, this will reach the eastern Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon, developing surface and vertical convection en route. It is too early to reasonably forecast track and intensity with any accuracy but - speaking only personally - I would be kicking off my storm plan now. Regardless of development, this system will spread heavy squalls into the northern Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf by Tuesday and squalls may reach as far north as the deepwater leases off the Texas coast on Wednesday.

Disturbance Twenty Three is now about a day west of the Cape Verde islands, westbound at 18 knots. This is still badly organised but shows a large region of precipitation on aerial imagery, so something is going on. We will watch this one as well.

Cautious watch on the Gulf of Mexico otherwise stand easy.