JOSE creating swell across south eastern seaboard
Friday 15th September 2017
Hurricane JOSE has temporarily weakened into a 65 knot tropical storm as it moved west-nor'west but is now entering a fertile patch and may deepen to hurricane strength again before it alters course to a more northerly heading between the Outer Banks and Bermuda early next week. Whilst the unusually maverick UK Met Office modeller who had this making a Florida landfall has decided to join the rest of the world, the consensus has shifted west. A glance or swipe at the eastern seaboard somewhere between North Carolina and New England is not beyond reason now. At present this has a 140 mile radius windfield and has whipped up a sizeable swell in the time it has been stationary. This is already being felt across Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the south eastern seaboard and will spread north along the mid-Atlantic eastern seaboard over the next few days.
Disturbance Forty is now 380 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon westbound at 14 knots. This is showing signs of organising itself and development is expected as it moves toward the Caribbean where it looks set to become a threat to the northeast Caribbean early next week.
Disturbance Forty One upgraded to Tropical Depression Fourteen overnight and has its sleeves rolled up to become a tropical storm later today. Further strengthening is expected over the next few days, but an increase in shear over the central Atlantic will cause weakening before it can do much harm.
Surf's up in the south western Atlantic otherwise stand easy.