Storm cones aloft over the Yucatan Channel
Wednesday 4th October 2017
Tropical disturbance Forty Seven has piped up about 100 miles off the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua and is moving slowly north-west. This has become today's meteorological observer's pin-up. This system is producing winds of around 25 to 30 knots and starting to form an organised wind pattern. Conditions are favourable for this become our next tropical storm as it tracks towards the Gulf of Mexico, transiting the Yucatan channel overnight on Friday passing Cozumel and Cancun. An advancing cold front has again come to the rescue of the north-west Gulf which will push this north and then north east. Reliable modellers have this making a landfall around the Florida panhandle late on Sunday as a tropical storm.
Disturbance Forty Four is currently over the Bahamas moving slowly to the west producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms that are impacting the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida. There will be squally weather for a couple of days however environmental conditions are not favourable for any significant development.
Disturbance Forty Six is passing north east of the Leeward Islands on a west-nor ‘westerly heading. Rainfall across the area is disorganised and will continue across the Greater Antilles for a couple of days but development is not expected.
Newbie disturbance Forty Eight has emerged from the Atlantic convergence zone sandpit, currently centred around 450 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon and is westbound. This is also producing some disorganised squalls but looking ahead, environmental conditions are unfavourable for development, aside from rain across the Windward Islands early next week.
Storm cones aloft over the Yucatan Channel.