Hurricane warning for central Gulf of Mexico

Thursday 5th October 2017

Disturbance Forty Seven intensified into Tropical Depression Sixteen overnight and won't stop there. This is close to the Mosquito coast and will shortly move ashore into Nicaragua before reappearing into the western Caribbean from Honduras and heading north west. This has accumulated considerable amounts of moisture and is already causing torrential rain with localised flooding and mudslides ashore. Once seaborne again, it will move slowly north–west, possibly clipping the Yucatan peninsula around Cozumel on Friday afternoon as a tropical storm before entering the southern Gulf of Mexico overnight then heading north. Warm waters and favourable conditions await and it is highly likely that this will reach hurricane force before making a landfall in Alabama on Sunday afternoon.

Disturbance Forty Four is now centred over the Florida Straits. As this has been slow moving across water, this is now producing heavy rain across southern Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba. A slow westerly track will continue battling upper level shear which will suppress development and hopefully, push the disturbance ashore somewhere between the Florida panhandle and the Mississippi.

Disturbance Forty Six is passing north of the Leeward Islands on a west-nor ‘westerly heading at a snail's pace. This will produce disorganised showers across the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days but is otherwise unfavourable for development.

Disturbance Forty Eight is now around 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles also westbound at dead slow ahead. No development is expected aside from more rain across the Windward Islands next week.

Storm cones aloft Yucatan channel.

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