Early storm speculation from the Canadian guy

Friday 20th October 2017

Disturbance Fifty Three is centred in the western Caribbean, about a day's steaming east of Nicaragua's Mosquito Coast on a westerly heading, making an impressive 22 knots. Upper level shear and a blistering ground speed will keep a lid on any development, and produce little more than showers and thunderstorms across Central America over the coming weekend.

Disturbance Fifty Four is now centred around 750 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving slightly north of west at 18 knots. This is also battling upper level shear and unlikely to survive the crossing.

The modellers are at it again, now predicting a disturbance in the western Caribbean late next week with a track north east across Cuba and the Bahamas. The Canadian guy has this down as a named storm already, but this is not unusual for him, and far from certain. We shouldn't forget that he was spot on with MATTHEW last year.

Stand easy.