Clouds gathering over Gulf of Mexico

Thursday 24th May 2018

Disturbance Two is transiting the Yucatan channel now, northbound at a brisk walking pace. This has shifted its track slightly west but unlikely to change much. Slow ground speed means this will increasingly draw water and when it does make land, will be a rainmaker.

Upper level shear will displace the whole circulating thing to the east of the nominal centre. This means the heaviest impact as things stand is likely to be torrential rain across across Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi throughout the weekend. In Britain, we call this phenomenon ‘summer'.

Development is still uncertain. Such strong upper level shear should keep a lid on this but chatter continues on weak storm development before a landfall west of the Florida panhandle on Monday morning. Operators here off Louisiana, for example have their hurricane response plans under way as storm clouds gather.

Stand by for rain over the Memorial Weekend, and a weather watch needed for possible development.